There will be a ying-yang theme to the 2026 season in Rwanda this year.
Yin: Cherry prices are high, which means farmers are happy.
Yang: Cherry prices are high, which means the rest of the supply chain will struggle.
We'll attempt to un-pack what's behind this state of affairs.
Why Are Cherry Prices High?
Good question. In fact, you might ask, weren't the cherry prices last year the highest ever? See our blogpost 117, "Highest cherry prices ever in Rwanda's 2025 season." Last year the government of Rwanda set the farmgate price at 600 Rwf/kg cherry. This year, on Jan. 13, the farmgate was announced as 750 Rwf/kg cherry for sinkers (good cherry). The Rwandan government typically only sets this floor price for cherry once a year. It doesn't typically get adjusted even when the C market changes significantly.
The farmgate price of 750 Rwf/kg cherry is one reason the cherry prices are high. The other is competition due to 2026 being a "down" production year. Coffee trees naturally have an up-year / down-year cycle. Cooperative leaders have already been reporting to us that they're seeing fewer flowers on the trees in the past months, which means production will be low. Economics 101: low supply means high demand and high prices.
What is the Impact on Farmers and Cooperatives?
750 Rwf/kg cherry is only-in-your-dreams coffee heaven
for many coffee farmers. I believe Rwandan farmers have been underpaid for so long, this is not an overpayment, it is a market correction. But that doesn't make it easier to swallow for anyone in the supply chain. This is especially true for cooperatives, many of which have limited access to capital and therefore insufficient cash flow to pay cash on delivery to farmers --- which is absolutely what Rwandan coffee farmers are demanding. Organizations without sufficient cash will not get cherry and will not have coffee to sell.
Coffee cooperatives in Rwanda often struggle against two forces that are out of their control:
1) their cooperative's past financial mistakes, and
2). a cash flow problem. The banking system is unable to work in a timely manner for the calendar of the coffee year.
1. Past financial mistakes. Many cooperatives are weighed down by the fact that there was a cooperative manager 5 or 15 years ago (now long gone), who embezzled money or made ill-advised choices with the loans they agreed to take. In such cases, today's cooperative managers are often saddled with debt at high interest rates, and / or bad credit at the banks. Add to this the fact that many cooperatives struggle to keep good records, and especially financial statements based on international standards are rare. Even the most generous of non-profits which run programs to support rural businesses will require good financial records. Thus, some cooperatives are sand-bagged repeatedly by lack financial accounting skills.
There is another unfortunate consequence due to a cooperative's past financial mistakes. It used to be that farmers who were members of a cooperative would be willing to deliver their cherry to their cooperative's collection site in return for credit. The farmer understood they would get cash after a few months, after the coffee buyers start sending payments to the cooperative.
But if there is financial mis-management, that trust and ability to pay members with short-term credit is gone. Add to that situation a market where prices and demand are high, and farmers know it's in their best interest to insist on being paid in cash, even if it means walking past your cooperative's gate because you know the coop is 'paying' credit and someone else nearby is paying cash. Or, middlemen start showing up on the doorstep of the farmer's house offering to pay them cash on the spot, and "don't even worry about the transport." The middleman will pay cash and probably has a small truck waiting not far away, which can transport all the cherry collected that day to the mill owned by a multi-national company with deep pockets.
2. The second problem is the cash flow problem cooperatives face due to inadequate financial systems. Probably farmers in any country would say that the banks don't understand their problems, but that is certainly true in Rwanda. If a financial institution offers any agricultural credit in Rwanda, the application process is long (at least 4 months) and available resources are scarce (10x more applicants than funds available). Even after a loan is approved, dispersement of funds comes late. Many cooperative managers have told me that their bank loan for working capital was so late, it only arrived after the peak season for purchasing cherry had passed.
