In Rwanda's various coffee-growing districts, some areas have finished peak season, and the cherry "flow" into the washing stations is tapering off. In the others, they're at the peak now and in still others, usually in the North, they are still ramping up day by day. One thing seems clear across all districts - coffee productivity is up! "Last week it was 8 tonnes collected today. Yesterday we collected 11 tonnes! More than we've ever collected in one day," exclaimed one coffee washing station manager.
Farmgate cherry prices are also up. I believe this is more than a coincidence. Rwanda may finally be proving it to itself that its coffee farmers have been right all along: they've been saying they know how to grow coffee, but the cherry price was not an incentive to invest in coffee. Last year's cherry price of 480 Rwf/kg cherry was the highest the country had ever seen, and now this year is a 20% increase over that, at 600 Rwf/kg cherry.
Table 1: Government of Rwanda Farmgate Cherry Price: 2015 - 2025
A. Farmers are paying cash for fertilizer. In 2015 - 2016 I was in Rwanda doing research. Sometimes we would be in meetings with coffee industry stakeholders and as economists, we tried to explain that farmers are not incentivized by the low farmgate price to invest in their coffee trees. We explained that if they were, they would be willing to buy fertilizer themselves. Stakeholders laughed at the idea. Farmers had "always" waited for the government to distribute fertilizer "for free." It wasn't for free. The farmers paid for it with an export tax. But it was a hidden fee and it was not cash they voluntarily took out of their pocket. Many in those days believed coffee farmers didn't know enough about fertilizer to decide to buy it and apply it without government assistance. But this year, I've talked to a farmer who tells me for the first time, he paid his own cash to buy fertilizer for his coffee trees. He knew what the government distributed would be insufficient or too late to be useful. I suspect there are many like him.
B. Farmers raising seedlings and other farmers paying cash for them. In the past, if seedlings of coffee trees were raised at all, it was by the government institution, the Rwanda Agricultural Board, RAB. Then, in 2017 - 2019, several programs incentivized cooperatives and exporters to have coffee tree nurseries. Today, I'm hearing that individual farmers are taking it upon themselves to build, stock and care for coffee tree nurseries. They are entrepreneurs who are sure they'll be able to sell coffee seedlings to neighboring farmers who want to plant more coffee trees, since now coffee is gaining a reputation as a lucrative crop. More lucrative, even, than maize and beans.
I've heard reports that trees that typically produce only 3 kg in a season are producing 5 - 6 kg of cherry this year.
Another quote from my Rwanda farmer friend, "this year farmers are happy more than any other year. They keep working for their trees. Price keeps going high. They will be encouraged."