Wednesday, June 29, 2016

57. Cost of Production Presentation - New Research from Rwanda

June 25, 2016

The second presentation Artisan Coffee Group made at the Dublin World of Coffee Expo "Business" seminar room was an update on the new data from Rwanda on cost of production for farmers. The research comes about as a result of Ruth Ann Church's  dual role on the Africa Great Lakes Coffee (AGLC) support program. The project has implemented a baseline study, producing the data used in the presentation. Ruth Ann is the monitoring and evaluation coordinator for Michigan State University and she is eligible for that role due to her status as a masters student in the Community Sustainability department. Ruth Ann is writing her masters project this summer on "Understanding Cost of Production of Coffee in Rwanda." So the Dublin venue was a perfect opportunity to share what has been learned so far.

A key point about the research is that this is knowledge that can help us pay farmers more. At Artisan, we maintain that only when the costs in the entire supply chain are well understood, can management decisions at any point be made wisely and with true sustainability as a goal. Understanding the costs of the farmer are often the toughest for stakeholders to grasp for a number of reasons:
  • Public data and credible research on costs to produce for smallholders in tiny countries is rare.
  • Little research is even available on the methodologies for conducting cost to produce studies.
  • Farmers, especially smallholder farmers, many of whom are illiterate, do not keep careful records of costs, making traditional cost accounting systems unhelpful.
  • Coffee farmers are located in very remote places. Travel to reach them and identifying them is time-consuming.
  • Coffee farmers speak local languages, like Kinyarwanda in Rwanda.
  • There is great variety in the types of coffee farmers, the methods and practices they use, the plants and environmental conditions in which coffee is grown.
  • In other words, conducting good research on farmers costs is expensive.
At Artisan, we feel these reasons explain why well-designed research on cost to produce of coffee should be heralded and given a great deal of attention. Thus, we were truly excited to bring the newest data in the industry on cost to produce to Dublin!

The sections of the presentation were as follows:
   1. Methodology of the baseline study

2. Components of cost of production (CoP)

3. Factors driving costs of production

4. Understanding declining farmer motivation to produce coffee.

1. Methodology

The AGLC baseline Survey was conducted early in 2016 on a sample of 1,024 households randomly selected from listings of 16 coffee washing stations (CWS) geographically dispersed across four major coffee-growing districts representing Rwanda’s four agricultural provinces (see map). 
Map: Rwanda - Sampled districts, washing stations (red dots), households (white dots). Source: Nathan Clay, AGLC staff.
The selected districts are Rutsiro (Western Province), Huye (Southern Province), Kirehe (Eastern Province), and Gakanke (Northern Province). The guiding objective of the Sector/CWS selection was to maximize geographic dispersion of the four CWSs in each district and also to ensure that the four would include two that are cooperatively owned and operated and two that are privately owned and operated. From the farmer listings at each of the CWSs, 64 farmers were randomly sampled for study, totaling 1,024 (16 CWS x 64 HH) coffee producing households in all.



The survey instruments were developed at the farm household and field levels. Sections of the questionnaire covered a diversity of topics, not only cost of production. The questionnaires were translated to Kinyarwanda and programmed for Samsung 7” tablets using CSPro Mobile software, and pretested in the field. Ten experienced enumerators were hired and were trained just prior to the pretest. Immediately following the pretest a series of debriefing sessions was organized and the survey instruments were revised based on the pretest results. The ten enumerators worked for 6 weeks in the field to complete the 1,024 farmer interviews, all at the farmers' homes and in their fields.

2. Components of Cost of Production (CoP)
Three major components make up our cost of production value:
  1. Labor: Household (unpaid) labor and wage labor (by task).
  2. Equipment, such as pruning shears, sprayers, masks, etc.
  3. Purchased inputs (mulch, fertilizer, pesticide, etc.)
It's important to note that our data allows us to value the household's "own labor", which is unpaid labor, at a 'market value.' The market value was determined by taking the average of the daily rate the farmers in our sample told us they pay when they hire wage labor. The daily wage for coffee farm tasks was remarkably similar across tasks, except for sorting, which is paid at a lower rate than other tasks. The average rate is 700 RWF/day, which is about $.88/day, (less than a dollar per day). 

Splitting out the labor component into household labor vs. wage labor, a breakdown of the average CoP is as follows:


Cost of Production         Item RWF $US % of total
Mean value of household labor:  35,868 45 33%
Mean value of wage labor: 44,313 56 41%
Mean value of equipment used: 7,506 10 7%
Mean value of purchased inputs:  19,838 25 18%
Total: for the 2015 season 107,527 136 100%

Dividing the total costs per household by the KGs each farmer produced (see table below), we calculate the average CoP per KG cherry. KG cherry is the production unit that is most common across all coffee producers globally.

A.                                        Cost of Production, RWF (cash value) B.                                             Total harvest 2015 (KG) mean C.                                  CoP RWF per KG cherry
                         104,479 1025 177

Converting RWF into $ we have $ .22/KG cherry.
Converting KG into lbs, we have $ .10/lb cherry.

These values are important in the Rwandan context, since the government board that sets the floor price for cherry at the beginning of each season uses a value for the farmers' cost to produce in its calculations. Today they are using 80 RWF/KG cherry, less than half of our estimate.

3. Factors Driving Cost of Production
The presentation continued with a discussion of drivers of cost of production, such as the number of trees, gender and percent of household income coming from coffee. As expected, the number of trees is found to be the most important driver. As the number of trees increases, CoP per KG cherry declines. (See chart below.) 
 

Female heads of household in our sample had significantly higher CoP than the average at 205 RWF/KG cherry. 

Percent of income coming from coffee is a significant driver when the percent drops below 25%. Then the CoP rises steeply to about 277 RWF/KG cherry. Once the percent of income from coffee is above 25%, however, CoP remains at about 150 RWF/KG cherry.

4. Understanding Declining Farmer Motivation
In this section of the presentation Ruth Ann showed analysis from other AGLC team members, namely from Dr. Dan Clay. The "discovery" in the data is that largeholder farmers (those with 1000+ trees) are not investing in coffee in Rwanda at the levels one would predict. Thus the gross margins (profits) per KG cherry for the largeholder farmers are below the margins mid-range farmers are receiving. (See chart below.)


Shown another way, in the bar chart below one can see that mid-range farmers produce more than their share of coffee given the percent share they have of trees. Largeholder farmers on the other hand, are producing significantly less KG of cherry than one would hope given their numbers of trees. 

 We explain the phenomenon in the above two charts with the explanation that largeholders are "divesting" from coffee because the returns are not there. They have other choices. There is a lack of financial motivation for these largeholders to spend their resources in coffee. We propose that a policy remedy is to raise the floor price of cherry to cover costs of production and provide a level of profit per KG cherry that is comparable to the competing rural products, such as banana and raising livestock.

[Thank you to Michigan State University for its generous support for my travel funds to get to Dublin.]







Monday, June 27, 2016

56. Lean At Origin Makes Debut at World of Coffee Dublin

At the RDS Simmonscourt expo center in Dublin, Ireland.

June 25, 2016
We presented a "Lean at Origin" introduction at the "World of Coffee" in Dublin. This is the Specialty Coffee Association of Europe (SCAE's) annual trade show and conference. Ruth Ann Church started with some background on Lean, explaining how it has been entrenched in other global supply chains like automotive and aerospace -- why not coffee? The principles of eliminating waste, empowering employees and improving quality and flow efficiency all hit areas of concern for coffee businesses.

To give the audience a personal understanding of how waste elimination improves efficiency, Church invited participants to do an exercise involving finding a sequence of numbers, 1 - 49, on a sheet of paper - with a 1 minute time limit. The first time through, the numbers are scattered on the page every which way with many unrelated numbers. It's tough to get through! The highest number an audience member could get to was 14. On the next sheet of paper, there are fewer numbers and they are arranged on a grid. This time the participants nearly doubled their "productivity" in the one minute time alotment and the highest number achieved was 29. At this point, Church points out a pattern on the sheet of numbers. You can actually find each number in sequence by starting in the upper left box, then going down that column, then starting at the top of the next column and going down, etc. So the third time through, with only 30 seconds, the participants nearly doubled their productivity again, and achieved the "quota" of circling all 49 numbers in sequence!

From this point, the audience was engaged and able to follow along as Church described tools such as value stream maps (VSM). She showed the first value stream map for a washing station, and how the triangles show where materials (cherry or parchment) waits. This is waste. The  VSM is for KOPAKAMA (a cooperative in Rwanda) and their productivity ratio is 25 - 47% -- this is the percent of "value add" time over the "production lead time" or time that is not adding value from the customer's perspective. The 25 - 47% are actually pretty good evidence that KOPAKAMA is run quite efficiently. In manufacturing, it is common for a plant to start it's lean journey with a productivity ratio of <1%.  Church anticipates finding many washing stations with ratios at 15  20%. She has visited about 15 washing stations in Rwanda and seen a wide variety of practices.

Next, Church shows the audience how KAIZEN events (improvement projects) are the key tool to eliminate the wastes identified in the VSM. The events require action and passion, not talk! "Try-storming" is a term used to describe the kind of activity that needs to happen for workers implementing a KAIZEN to be successful. "Try-storming" is different than brainstorming, because it is about doing something, not talking about it.

Obviously, employee-led projects like this require training for the employees and the kind of positive organizational leadership that will support and encourage such improvement processes. That is why the Lean at Origin program Artisan Coffee Group is implementing started with Leadership Training and Supervisor Training. Training for all the workers will come in the months leading up to next year's harvest season.

The final point Church makes, is that Lean implementation is guided by the fact there must be an anticipated return on investment (ROI) and therefore there must be metrics. She showed examples of what these look like for KOPAKAMA, including the anticipated $172,000 annual increase in sales, which is a 15% increase of A1-A2 (high quality green coffee) sales.

[Church would like to thank TWIN Trading for their support of the pilot project at KOPAKAMA, and Michigan State University for its generous support with travel funds.]









Saturday, May 28, 2016

54. Ejo Heza Women Experiment to Grow Margins


May 26, 2016
Ejo Heza representatives L to R: Bernadette, cell leader; Therese, president; Olive, coop advisor.
On May 26 I had the opportunity to make an interesting visit to the women's cooperative, Ejo Heza, which is part of KOPAKAMA in Rwanda's Rutsiro district, Western Province. They are running an experiment on new ways to mulch and weed. For mulching, they are doing "targeted mulching" and for weeding, they are experimenting with cutting the weeds and leaving the weed cuttings on the ground instead of uprooting weeds and carrying them away.

These are two "time-saving" ways of doing mulching and weeding. The women report they had higher profits from coffee in 2015 after they started these methods in their experimental field in January 2015. They have a "control" field next to their experimental field and they are monitoring how well the "targeted mulch + weeds-left-on-the-ground" methods are working.

Plot of experimental trees for the women's cooperate Ejo Heza.


Targeted mulching and "easy" weeding experiment.

A row of trees in experimental field.


Agronomist Gervais KAYITARE stands between two plots - the control (L) and the experiment (R).







Monday, May 23, 2016

53. Kick-off at KOPAKAMA - Lean at Origin

May 23, 2016
Hands-on practice of lean principles using a simulation.
Thanks to a grant from Trademark East Africa, TWIN Trading has been able initiate the launch of "Lean at Origin" training for coffee washing stations in Rwanda. TWIN selected Artisan Coffee Group to bring this training to two cooperatives in Rwanda's Western Province. Because of logistics, a lead cooperative, KOPAKAMA, was selected and a nearby cooperative, KOPAKAKI, was selected to send representatives to the training sessions. The two-day leadership training has just completed and two more weeks of 2-day sessions are planned.

The core idea of "Lean at Origin" is to maximize customer value while minimizing waste. Simply stated, "lean" means creating more value for customers with fewer resources by developing a culture of metrics and focus on flow efficiency. Converting an organization to this kind of mindset is usually a major culture change, whether it's happening in central Ohio in the U.S., or in the mountains of Rwanda, and thus it takes 2 - 3 years, not days, to implement.

This kick-off training unites KOPAKAMA and KOPAKAKI cooperative board members, coffee washing station staff and coffee farmers, large and small as they begin their "Journey to World Class". The specific objective of the 2-day leadership training was to give management of the cooperative a solid understanding of lean objectives including the ability to describe the "why" for their cooperative and at least three lean tools.

Lean at Origin was developed and created by Artisan Coffee Group because Ruth Ann Church, Artisan's president, believes the principles of lean can have an important impact on sustainability of the coffee supply chain in this age of climate change, price volatility and concern about the cost of quality. "As I've visited over a dozen washing stations in Rwanda, I've seen examples of smart improvements to efficiency and I've seen a lot of waste," comments Church. "Through Lean at Origin training, we should be able to minimize waste in ways that translate into profits for washing stations and farmers -- because the survival of both are inextricably linked."

After the two-day training session, trainees had the opportunity to share their insights on ways to save money and improve productivity. Leonidas NDORAHIMANA, Secretary of KOPAKAMA, said that there were different wastes occurring in transportation, labor resources, organization of items and general time management, which decreases their profit. With the new model of minimizing wastes they are going to make improvements by targeting customer needs more carefully in order to maximize profit.

[Contributing author: Eric Nshimiyimana]


 
Ruth leads an exercise for "seeing waste."



Giving a report from a small group discussion.
Lean at Origin - Leadership Training - May 19 & 20, 2016

Dashboard of metrics created to track farmer interests, productivity and quality.
6S group exercise - identifying waste.
Cherry collectors bringing in cherry around 7pm.
Coffee cherries delivered in the morning.


Break time.

The view at KOPAKAMA is awesome!




 

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

52. Cost of Production and Farmer Incentives - Rountables 1 and 2

May 13 and 17, 2016
Dr. Rukazambuga presents data to the 5th roundtable.
Last Friday and yesterday the "Roundtable Series" of the Africa Great Lakes Coffee program got started, initiating the second stage of the project's work plan on policy. These are the first two in a series of five roundtables being held with Rwanda's coffee industry stakeholders. Topics are as follows:
  • Roundtable 1: Farmer Premiums
  • Roundtable 2: Farmer Investments in Coffee
  • Roundtable 3: Pre-Finance for Farmers
  • Roundtable 4: Fully-Washed Channel Growth
  • Roundtable 5: Access to Inputs
Below is the first of a series of intriguing slides showing never-seen-before data on cost-of-production (COP) for Rwanda's smallholder coffee farmers:
The figures above show the expected decline in COP as the number of trees increases. Economies of scale exist in coffee like other crops and industries. What is helpful, and new, is to see a measure of what the difference is between the lowest and highest, and also where the mean falls. At 177 Rwf/KG (i.e. $.23/kg or $.11/lb) the mean COP is 27 Rwf above the floor cherry price (of 120 Rwf/kg cherry) in Rwanda today. One notes that even the large farmers  in this sample are probably not making a profit, or if there is one, it is very slim at a price of 120 Rwf/kg cherry. Thus the next slide is not surprising:
In this slide, the prices on the X axis are hypothetical and the gross margin is calculated using the stratification of costs of production that we have in our sample from 1024 farmers. Here we can see that at the cherry floor price of 170 that existed during the 2015 season, over 1/3 of Rwanda's coffee farmers made a loss on coffee.

Future blogs will dig deeper into this topic and look at productivity measures.

The roundtables each include a different set of selectively invited individuals, usually about 10 - 12, from government, private industry, cooperatives and relevant research groups. All are being held at the Institute of Policy Analysis and Research (IPAR) in Kigali, one of the Rwandan partners on the project.

The format of the roundtables is to first present to the participants the "fresh off the press" analysis and findings from the baseline survey of 1024 coffee producers' households conducted Jan - Mar 2016. Then, after a coffee/tea break, the participants are invited to ask questions and discuss the findings with Global Knowledge Initiative (GKI) guiding the conversation and recording comments with flipcharts and typed notes.

Grace of AgroPy and Dr. Dan Clay

Kathryn Bowman of GKI moderated the discussion.